Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
